Feeling Strangely Skiffy

[akirlu]

So, today the news is full of the fact that the Pentagon is fielding the idea of using market investors to predict terrorism

You know what this is, don't you? It's John Brunner's Delphi pools, from Shockwave Rider. I re-read the book recently -- it's the Book of Honor for next year's Potlatch -- and was in general impressed at the high accuracy of a lot of the book's predictions (not, of course, that futurology is what SF is primarily about) but the concept of the Delphi pools seemed a little dotty. Shows what I know.

Though, to be perfectly accurate to the book, the new markets would have to be designed to keep bettors distracted from the covert machinations of the government. That'll never happen.

Comments

[redbird]

I find myself wondering whether bettors who did particularly well would be facing visits from the FBI. Also whether a terrorist organization could fund its attacks by betting on the sure thing of "there will be a bombing at X location on Y date."