akirlu | Be Vewy Quiet, I'm Hunting Torturers (Reply)

Hal has a theory that the Obama team's leak of of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State candidate may have been a deliberate, somewhat elaborate head fake. Think of it as chumming the waters in one spot, so you can fish in peace in another, while the sharks are all busy knocking the chum into smaller bits of pulp. Certainly, much of the national press drives itself into a blood-crazed frenzy whenever the Clintons are mentioned.

I have no idea if this is true, but it has plausibility, to me. The Obama campaign was masterful at keeping its endorsements secret and releasing them on a pre-arranged schedule, so as to keep themselves perpetually on the crest of a wave of building endorsements, rather than have them all hit at once and then fade from memory. In general, the Obama team seems to be pretty savvy at managing their own press contacts.

So, if the Clinton (potential) State appointment was the chum, what was the real fish? Treasury. A position that is far more immediately crucial at this juncture, and the furore over possible candidates died out completely once the Clinton leak was out. But with Hillary Clinton in the water for the press to exhaust themselves over for a week or two, the Obama team had the time to focus on finessing the Summers thing with an advisory appointment and securing Geithner for Treasury itself. This way the Summers appointment does not need Congressional approval, and the rather young Geithner seems like a far less sexy target for the chattering classes than he might have, sans Hillary drawing fire.

So, let's hold all that speculation about press savviness in our minds for a moment and now consider Gitmo.

Last night on The Rachel Maddow Show, Dahlia Lithwick was airing her disappointment that the long knives are not already out for various Bush cronies who had a hand in war crimes at Gitmo. And if that dark page gets turned entirely without review, then I'm right there with her.

But consider the possible press savviness of an Obama team deciding how to approach justice for Yoo and Cheney and Gonzalez and all the rest. Would it really be wise of them to declare firm intentions to prosecute while George Bush is still in office? Remember, Bush still has the power to write a bunch of pardons on leaving office, and according to standing precedent, even to pardon people who have not yet been accused or convicted of any crimes. If the Obama team signal blood lust now, what are the chances that Bush will preemptively pardon everyone who might otherwise get hauled up and held accountable? Pretty good, I'd say. But maybe, just maybe, if the President Elect plays possum on that issue, and lets the clock run out on the Bush presidency, then the Shrub team won't elect to signal the guilt of the various torture advocates by pardoning them for things they have yet to be accused of.

Now, it's equally possible that Obama and the rest of the Democrats in Washington will decide yet again that the country does not have the stomache for prosecuting war crimes at all. But I think there's at least a chance that what is going on is that until he's President, Mr. Obama doesn't want to spook the Bush administration into doing anything that would be hard to unrolll after the fact.